Coffee Agriculture Project

Fighting the US coffee trade deficit with cold tolerant plants that grow in the US

Imagine a future where the United States transforms from a nation importing over 3.2 billion pounds of coffee annually into a coffee-growing powerhouse, slashing import reliance and boosting local economies. Our work is pioneering this shift with a breakthrough coffee plant that thrives in colder climates, potentially unlocking millions of acres across the US for cultivation. With a 10°F increase in cold tolerance, we could produce over 1 billion pounds domestically—cutting imports by a third. Push that to 20°F, and we’re at 2.69 billion pounds, nearing self-sufficiency. At 30°F, 4.61 billion pounds could make the US a coffee exporter, tapping into a half a trillion dollar market. This isn’t just agriculture—it’s a chance to redefine food security and profitability. Let’s grow America’s coffee future on home soil!

If coffee plants could tolerate 30 degrees Fahrenheit colder temperatures, nearly 4 million additional acres of U.S. soil would become viable for coffee growth (assuming only 0.5% of newly available land is used) primarily in Zone 9b regions like Florida, Texas, and California.

We can go from our current 18 million annual pounds of US grown coffee to over 4 billion pounds by using just 0.5% of the new land where our cold-tolerant coffee plants can grow.

Doing this will invert our coffee trade deficit and create a $2.41 Billion surplus, create millions of jobs, and kickstart an entirely new segment of the coffee industry: US grown coffee.

Lab

We are currently working on producing a strain of Arabica coffee plant that grows in colder climates. We are doing this by exposing plants to increasingly cold temperatures, selecting for survivors, cloning cuttings, and repeating this process.

Our goal is to increase the average cold tolerance survival temperature by 10 degrees. Arabica plants typically die below 32 degrees for any extended period of time. By that number to 22 degrees, we can significantly increase the total coffee growing land around the world, specifically within the US.

We are studying the effects of cold exposure on leaves, and cloning leaves from plants that show resistance. By iterating this process with already cold-resistant coffee plants, we are quickly making progress towards a more cold-tolerant coffee seed. Once we reach out target of 10 degrees cold tolerance, we can begin cloning and seed production at scale. We will continue selecting for 20 and 30 degrees cold tolerance as seed production begins at 10 degrees initially.

Data

• Current Total US Coffee Imports in Weight (lbs): In 2019/2020, the US imported approximately 3.2 billion pounds of coffee, based on International Coffee Organization (ICO) data of 24.2 million bags (60 kg each), converted as 1,452,000 metric tons × 2,204.62 lbs/metric ton ≈ 3.2 billion lbs.

• Current Total Weight of Coffee Produced in the US (lbs): Domestic production, primarily from Hawaii with some contributions from California and Puerto Rico, totals approximately 10 million pounds annually. Hawaii produces about 6.8 million lbs (USDA), with the remainder conservatively estimated.

• Current Total Acres of US Soil Used for Coffee Production: Approximately 18,000 acres are currently cultivated for coffee, including 8,000 acres in Hawaii, 500 acres in California, and 10,000 acres in Puerto Rico.

• Total Available US Land for Coffee Production with 10°F Colder Tolerance: A new coffee breed tolerating 10°F colder temperatures (down to 20°F, USDA Zone 9) expands cultivation to Zones 10 and 9. Total land in these zones is approximately 300,000 square miles (192 million acres). Assuming 0.5% of this land can be adapted for coffee (considering soil alteration and practicality), this yields 0.96 million acres (192 million × 0.005).

• Total Available US Land for Coffee Production with 20°F Colder Tolerance: With 20°F colder tolerance (down to 10°F, Zone 8), cultivation extends to Zones 10, 9, and 8, totaling 700,000 square miles (448 million acres). At 0.5% usability, this results in 2.24 million acres (448 million × 0.005).

• Total Available US Land for Coffee Production with 30°F Colder Tolerance: With 30°F colder tolerance (down to 0°F, Zone 7), cultivation includes Zones 10, 9, 8, and 7, totaling 1,200,000 square miles (768 million acres). At 0.5%, this provides 3.84 million acres (768 million × 0.005).

• Weight of Coffee Grown on Newly Available Land:
  • 10°F Tolerance: On 0.96 million acres, assuming a yield of 1,200 lbs/acre, production is 1.15 billion pounds (0.96 million × 1,200).
  • 20°F Tolerance: On 2.24 million acres, production is 2.69 billion pounds (2.24 million × 1,200).
  • 30°F Tolerance: On 3.84 million acres, production is 4.61 billion pounds (3.84 million × 1,200).

Current US Coffee Deficit Explained To determine the current US coffee deficit in dollars, we need to consider the value of coffee imports since the US relies heavily on imported coffee, with domestic production being minimal in comparison. Based on available data:

• US Coffee Imports: In 2019/2020, the US imported approximately 3.2 billion pounds of coffee, as provided in the query (derived from 24.2 million bags at 60 kg each, converted to 3.2 billion lbs).
• Domestic Production: The US currently produces about 10 million pounds of coffee annually, primarily from Hawaii, California, and Puerto Rico.
• Consumption Approximation: Total US coffee consumption can be approximated as the sum of imports and domestic production, assuming negligible exports for simplicity. Thus, consumption is roughly 3.2 billion lbs + 10 million lbs = 3.21 billion lbs.
• Value of Imports: According to reliable sources like the US Census Bureau, the value of US coffee imports in 2020 was approximately $5.5 billion. This aligns with the import volume of 3.2 billion lbs, suggesting an average price of about $1.72 per pound ($5.5 billion ÷ 3.2 billion lbs ≈ $1.72/lb).

In trade terms, the “coffee deficit” typically refers to the net import value (imports minus exports). Since US coffee exports are negligible, the coffee deficit is effectively the value of imports. Therefore:

• Current US Coffee Deficit: $5.5 billion.

Coffee Surplus with Production of 4.61 Billion Pounds Now, let’s calculate the surplus once the US produces 4.61 billion pounds of coffee, as specified in the query. This production level corresponds to the 30°F colder tolerance scenario, where 3.84 million acres yield 4.61 billion pounds at 1,200 lbs/acre (3.84 million × 1,200 = 4.608 billion lbs, rounded to 4.61 billion lbs).

• Current Consumption: As calculated, the US currently consumes approximately 3.21 billion pounds of coffee per year (imports of 3.2 billion lbs + domestic production of 10 million lbs).
• New Production: With the new cold-tolerant coffee breed, domestic production increases to 4.61 billion pounds.
• Surplus Calculation: The surplus is the excess of production over consumption, assuming consumption remains constant at current levels:
  • Surplus = New Production – Current Consumption
  • Surplus = 4.61 billion lbs – 3.21 billion lbs = 1.4 billion lbs.
• Value of the Surplus: To express the surplus in dollars, we need to assign a value per pound. Using the current import price as a proxy (since this is the cost the US currently pays for coffee), we have $1.72 per pound:
  • Surplus Value = 1.4 billion lbs × $1.72/lb = $2.41 billion.

This surplus represents the excess coffee produced beyond domestic needs, which could potentially be exported or stored, though the query does not specify the fate of the excess. In economic terms, the surplus value indicates the potential economic benefit, either by reducing import costs or generating export revenue. Summary

• Current US Coffee Deficit: The US currently has a coffee deficit of $5.5 billion, reflecting the value of its coffee imports.
• Surplus with 4.61 Billion Pounds Production: Once producing 4.61 billion pounds of coffee, the US would have a surplus of $2.41 billion, based on an excess of 1.4 billion pounds valued at $1.72 per pound.

This shift would transform the US from a net coffee importer with a $5.5 billion deficit to a potential net producer with a significant surplus, highlighting the economic potential of expanding domestic coffee production.