Why Is Coffee So Expensive Right Now? What a Small Roaster Sees From the Barn
Coffee got expensive because the beans did. Dry weather hurt Brazil's crop, green arabica hit record prices in early 2025, and an extra 40% US tariff on Brazilian goods added to the cost until coffee was exempted for imports from November 13, 2025. Grocery ground coffee peaked at $9.72 a pound in April 2026 and averaged $9.33 in September 2026, about 2% higher than a year earlier.
We are a family that roasts one coffee in cast iron on our farm in Cedarburg, Wisconsin. Green coffee is a commodity, and its price moves what every roaster pays, ours included. Here is what moved it, in plain words and with dates. Every number below was checked on October 14, 2026.
What a pound costs on the shelf
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the average price of a pound of 100% ground roast coffee in US cities every month. Next to it we put the Coffee C futures price, the market price for green, unroasted arabica, averaged over the same month from the data on our live coffee futures dashboard.
| Month | Grocery ground coffee, average per lb (BLS) | Coffee C futures, green, average close per lb |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | $8.13 | $3.36 |
| September 2025 | $9.14 | $3.87 |
| January 2026 | $9.37 | $3.56 |
| April 2026 | $9.72 (the peak) | $2.99 |
| September 2026 | $9.33 | $3.01 |
One column is green coffee traded by the container and the other is roasted coffee on a store shelf, so compare the direction, not the dollars. The futures price came down from its 2025 highs while the shelf price kept climbing. Two years ago, in September 2024, the shelf average was $6.47, so a pound of grocery coffee costs about 44% more than it did then. (Shelf prices: BLS series APU0000717311. Futures: monthly averages of daily closes, Yahoo Finance data shown on our dashboard.)
Where the price starts
Most of the world's arabica is priced off one number: the Coffee C futures contract, traded on ICE Futures U.S. in cents per pound of green coffee. Growers, importers and large roasters use it to fix their prices months ahead, and real coffee from each country trades at a premium or a discount to it, called a differential.
On October 14, 2026, the December 2026 contract traded at about $2.97 a pound. A year earlier it closed near $4.00. Its highest close in the past two years was $4.39, on February 13, 2025.
That is not what a roaster pays. For green Colombian Supremo, our dashboard keeps a rough estimate of the delivered cost: the C price, plus about 45 cents a pound for the Supremo premium, plus about 35 cents for freight, import and handling. On October 14 that came to about $3.77 a pound, an estimate and not a quote. Then the roaster takes weight away. Coffee loses water in the roaster, and darker roasts lose more: Royal Coffee, a green coffee importer, puts it at about 10% for very light roasts and as much as 25% well past second crack, with examples of about 15% for a medium roast and 20% for a dark one. Assume about 18% for a medium-dark roast like ours, and a pound of green coffee makes roughly 13 ounces of roasted coffee (our estimate). Gas, bags, labor, shipping and the store's share all come after that.
Weather and harvests
Brazil is the world's largest coffee grower, so its weather moves the whole market. A long dry spell in Brazil's coffee country that began in 2024, through the months when the trees flower, cut expectations for the next harvest. Futures set one record after another into February 2025.
The other side of the story came in March 2026, when three trading firms forecast a record Brazil crop for 2026/27: Marex at 75.9 million bags, Sucafina at 75.4 million and StoneX at 75.3 million, each bag 60 kilograms (reported on Nasdaq). Those are forecasts, not coffee in a warehouse.
Prices still swing hard. This year the futures price went from $2.44 on June 9 to $3.78 in late August, then fell back under $3 by late September.
Tariffs
In July 2025 the US announced an extra 40% tariff on goods from Brazil, and coffee was not spared. In the weeks that followed, the futures price rose from about $2.96 at the end of July to $3.97 at the end of August, and it stayed close to $4 into December.
On November 20, 2025, an executive order removed that 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, beef and other farm goods, for imports on or after November 13, 2025 (CBS News; Fresh Fruit Portal). Removing a tariff lowers the cost of new shipments. Coffee already bought, shipped and sitting in a warehouse was paid for at the old price.
Why shelf prices lag
Coffee is bought months before it reaches a grocery shelf. Many roasters fix their bean costs well ahead on contracts tied to the futures price, the coffee travels by ship, and warehouses hold beans bought at whatever the price was that day. Futures closed at their record in February 2025, when the BLS shelf average was $7.25, and were still above $4 as late as December 11, 2025. Then they fell fast, to a February 2026 average of $2.96. The shelf price kept climbing anyway and did not top out until April 2026, at $9.72.
Since then the shelf price has eased about 4%, while the futures price sits about a third below its February 2025 high. Costs that do not follow coffee, like packaging, labor and freight, also keep a floor under what you pay at the store.
What it means for our prices
Our FAQ says it simply: "Green coffee is a commodity and its price moves. We hold our prices steady as long as we reasonably can." Current prices are always on the website. On October 14, 2026, they were:
| Coffee | Price per lb | Est. cost per 8 oz cup |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery ground coffee, US average, September 2026 (BLS) | $9.33 | $0.27 |
| The Hoff, 1 lb, one-time ($25) | $25.00 | $0.71 |
| Big Hoff Bag, 2 lb, monthly ($30) | $15.00 | $0.43 |
| King Hoff, 7 lb, one-time ($105) | $15.00 | $0.43 |
| Bulk, 20 lb, one-time ($250) | $12.50 | $0.36 |
Prices are before shipping: orders under $50, like one 1 lb bag or a single monthly 2 lb bag, pay USPS shipping, while the King Hoff and Bulk ship free. Cups are an estimate: about 35 eight-ounce cups per pound at standard strength, by the SCA golden cup. Our FAQ says to start with two tablespoons per six ounces of water, and if you brew stronger, you get fewer cups. The math is in how many cups of coffee are in a pound and our cost per cup guide.
The honest answer: a pound of our coffee costs more than the grocery average. If the lowest price per cup is what matters most right now, a can from the store is the cheaper cup, and there is nothing wrong with that. What you get from us is 100% Colombian Supremo Arabica (Supremo is Colombia's grade for the largest beans by screen size), roasted medium-dark in cast iron on our family farm and shipped within days of roasting in nearly all cases. We make one coffee: no decaf, no flavors, no pods, and we ship to US addresses only.
If you want a lower price per pound, the large sizes and subscriptions are where it comes down. The 20 lb Bulk bag is our lowest: $12.50 a pound one-time, or $11.50 on a subscription. Subscriptions come weekly, every 2 weeks or monthly at a lower price, with a two-delivery minimum, and you manage them online through a secure emailed link. In one order, each extra Big Hoff Bag of the same grind is $4 off and each extra Queen or King Hoff is $10 off. Buying for a break room? See office coffee without a contract.
Want to taste it first? The Little Hoff is a half pound of ground coffee for $15, plus shipping.
Coffee price questions
Will coffee prices go down?
Nobody can promise that, and we do not make forecasts. Here is what is known: on October 14, 2026, the futures price was about a third below its February 2025 high, record Brazil crops were forecast in March 2026, and shelf prices have moved many months behind futures. Weather in Brazil can change all of that in a week. Our Coffee C dashboard shows the market as it moves.
Why is Colombian coffee so expensive now?
Colombian coffee is arabica, and it is priced like most arabica: the Coffee C price plus a premium for origin and quality. When the C price rose, Colombian coffee rose with it. The 40% Brazil tariff never applied to it, but it did carry the 10% baseline US tariff from April 2025 until coffee was exempted in November 2025.
Should I stock up on coffee now?
We cannot give financial advice, and coffee is a poor thing to hoard. Roasted coffee tastes best fresh, and our FAQ advises against the freezer because "The freezer introduces moisture." Buy what you will drink while it is fresh, keep it in an airtight container like a Mason jar in a cool, dark cupboard, and see how long coffee beans last for the details.
The short version
Dry weather in Brazil pushed green coffee to records in early 2025, a tariff added to the cost later that year, and shelf prices followed months behind and have been slow to come back down. We keep watching the market from the barn and holding our prices as long as we reasonably can. For more plain answers about buying and brewing, see our coffee guides.